CNBC: Vietnamese Stock Market Forecast to See Strong Growth in 2026

Market Performance and Valuation

• Outperformance: The VanEck Vietnam ETF (VNM) has reportedly surged by around 62% this year, significantly outpacing the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI), which rose by 31%. The VN-Index itself climbed 38%, surpassing the 30% increase recorded by the broader iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM).
• "Super, Super Cheap" Valuation: The Vietnamese market is still seen as "super, super cheap" compared to U.S. stocks, according to Thea Jamison, CEO of Change Global, who called Vietnam a "shining, emerging superstar." The market is recovering after a sharp decline in 2022 and has risen above pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels.
• Liquidity: Market liquidity is increasing, with the average daily trading volume reaching $2 billion this year.
• Domestic-Driven Growth: Foreign investors "completely missed out" on this rally. The market is becoming less reliant on foreign capital and is now primarily driven by domestic investors.

CNBC: Vietnamese Stock Market Forecast to See Strong Growth in 2026

The 2026 Catalyst: Market Upgrade

A major driver for optimistic sentiment is the announced market upgrade.

• FTSE Russell Upgrade: FTSE Russell announced in November that it will upgrade Vietnam from a Frontier Market to a Secondary Emerging Market, effective September 21, 2026.
• Foreign Capital Inflow: Thu Nguyen, CEO of VinaCapital, estimates that this upgrade could bring an additional $5-6 billion in foreign capital into Vietnamese equities. She expressed confidence that Vietnamese authorities will effectively resolve remaining issues to ensure the upgrade proceeds as planned.

2026 Market Forecast

VinaCapital's Thu Nguyen forecasts a more stable environment for Vietnamese stocks in 2026.

• Growth Outlook: She projects that listed corporate earnings could increase by about 15%, which is expected to translate into 15–20% market growth for the year.
• Performance Nuance: She cautioned that the strong 2025 growth was concentrated in a few stocks, mainly driven by the real estate sector. Excluding stocks like Vingroup, Vinhomes, and Vincom Retail, the VN-Index's year-to-date gain would only be around 10%.

Highlights of the Vietnamese Stock Market Development

The article highlights several structural factors supporting the market's long-term growth:

• Economic Reforms and Government Policies: The Vietnamese government has implemented measures to create a favorable business environment, including reducing administrative barriers and improving capital access for businesses. Noteworthy initiatives include Resolution 68 (promoting the private sector) and ongoing amendments to the Land Law.
• High FDI: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) interest is surging. Vietnam recorded its highest FDI disbursement in five years, with $21.3 billion disbursed in the first 10 months of the year.
• Favorable Demographics: Vietnam possesses a large, young, and dynamic workforce, capable of quickly adapting to new technologies and processes, according to Dang Thanh Tung, Chief Economist at Dragon Capital.
• Trade Diversification: Vietnam is actively pursuing new and upgraded trade agreements with partners across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East to reduce reliance on any single market. A new trade agreement with the U.S., signed in July, included a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports (reduced from an initial 46% announced earlier), with some goods potentially enjoying 0% tariffs. This has strengthened Vietnam’s competitive advantage against its direct rivals.